Spring practices are already in the books and fall camps will be here before you know it, which means you’ll have an early jump into the 2006 NCAA football season. Knowing the teams now will save you time. in August and Matt Fargo is here to help you understand what to expect this coming year. We go from worst to first in this 2006 college football trailer.
#52 – Minnesota Golden Gophers 7-5 SU; 7-5 ATS
Fargo’s Take One of the best running teams in the country could become an average running team. Minnesota has averaged at least 200 ypg on the ground in each of the last five years, including at least 257 ypg in the last three, but that will change this season. Laurence Maroney is playing in the NFL, the fourth rusher in four years to eclipse 1,000 yards. Fourth on that list is Gary Russell, who rushed for 1,130 yards last season as a backup but is academically ineligible, which is why the Gophers are suffering. The passing game will take center stage, but it’s the defense that needs to start to improve, having increased its points allowed in each of the past three seasons. Minnesota has bowled in each of the past four seasons and it will take a big effort to get back to 2006.
Returning starters on offense – 6 The loss of running backs is hard to overcome, but the offensive line had a lot to do with that success and the departure of four-year starting center Greg Eslinger is huge. Two starters on the line return as does Matt Speath, one of the best blocking tight ends in the country, so if Amir Pinnix can emerge as another Gopher threat, things could be good again. Quarterback Bryan Cupito will be in his third season as a starter and given that he has improved in each of the past two years, he could have a big year. He completed more than 59 percent of his passes last year after a 47 percent completion rate in 2004. He’s also thrown just 16 interceptions the past two seasons. His top three receivers are back, and if the line can come close to the minuscule three sacks allowed last year, the offense could thrive once again.
Returning starters defensively – 6 This is the side of the ball that will determine Minnesota’s postseason fate. The defense allowed an unforgivable 29 points per game last year, 80 in the country while the total defense finished 90 in the nation. He allowed more than 34 points per game in Big Ten action with five teams scoring at least 35 points. The Gophers have had at least seven returning starters in the last four years, but only six returned this season with plenty of young people mixed in there. The defensive line is extremely young and inexperienced with only one starter back and he is a sophomore. Up to three sophomores or freshmen are expected to be in the starting spots this season, so it will be up to the limited veterans to take over defense and improve in all areas. However, it is easier said than done.
Schedule The schedule is extremely difficult, but that’s nothing new in the Big Ten. The non-conference slate is a joke, as always, with games against Kent St., Temple and North Dakota St. helping out. The Gophers have to travel to California for the second game of the season, but that’s the only non-conference challenge. The Big Ten roster is tough, as usual, with four games lost on the road at Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St., and Michigan St. The only home game with a sure win is against Indiana, which is an improved team and cannot be taken for granted. The other three games are against Michigan, Penn St. and Iowa. That works out to seven probable or at least possible losses, so some upsets need to happen for the Gophers to bowl. Illinois is off the schedule, a losing streak.
You can bet on… Minnesota will have more passing yards than rushing yards for the first time since 2000 as Cupito will have to take control of the offense and thrive. He definitely can do it, but it’s up to his defense to be able to make some stops, which he didn’t do last season. The Gophers are 0-4 ATS in the past four seasons as a home underdog and will be in that spot when Michigan comes to town for its Big Ten home opener. What’s even worse is that the Gophers handed the Wolverines a three-point home loss last season, so Michigan will come looking for revenge. It was Minnesota’s first victory in 16 years and could be its last for another 16.